Around 11 Years of Translated Books Ranked by Popularity

I’ve taken Goodreads entries for a list of translations compiled originally at Three Percent, sorted them by a popularity metric (the log of the number of raters multiplied by the square of the average rating expressed as a percentage), and listed the top 20 entries for each year below. There are several problems with using Goodreads ratings in this way. Goodreads tries to use the same entry for each edition of a book, so if the book originates in a country where Goodreads itself is popular, there will be many ratings and reviews long before the book is translated. Also, Goodreads doesn’t always succeed in grouping different editions together, and if I wasn’t able to find the entry with the most ratings, it won’t do well here. Along the way, I also excluded some TV novelizations and children’s books, because they were for some reason overrepresented in about three years of the data, but I did reclassify popular YA or general interest graphic novels into categories that would count (fiction, nonfiction, and poetry).

Entries in bold are those that were not only popular—they also met the relatively strict criterion of having > 33% more 5 star ratings than 4 star ratings, > 33% more 4 star ratings than 3 star ratings, and so on.

2008

Stieg Larsson, Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Roberto Bolano, 2666
Nisioisin, Death Note: Another Note
Jose Saramago, Death with Interruptions
Muriel Barbery, Elegance of the Hedgehog
Arnaldur Indridason, Draining Lake
Boris Akunin, Special Assignments
Stefan Zweig, Post-Office Girl
Fred Vargas, This Night’s Foul Work
Henning Mankell, Pyramid
Giorgio Faletti, I Kill
Andrea Camilleri, Paper Moon
Stefan Brijs, Angel Maker
Peter Zilahy, Last Window-Giraffe
Jiang Rong, Wolf Totem
Willem Frederik Hermans, Darkroom of Damocles
Naguib Mahfouz, Cairo Modern
Elena Ferrante, Lost Daughter
Mo Yan, Life and Death Are Wearing Me Out
Johan Theorin, Echoes from the Dead

2009

Stieg Larsson, Girl Who Played with Fire
Jo Nesbo, Nemesis
Fernando Pessoa, Collected Poems of Alvaro de Campos: Volume 2
Sebastian Fitzek, Therapy
Hiroshi Sakurazaka, All You Need Is Kill
Eduardo Galeano, Mirrors: Stories of Almost Everyone
Yoko Ogawa, Housekeeper and the Professor
Walter Moers, Alchemaster’s Apprentice
Ahmet Hamdi Tanpinar, Mind at Peace
Javier Marias, Your Face Tomorrow Volume Three: Poison, Shadow, and Farewell
Jonathan Littell, Kindly Ones
Max Frei, Stranger: Labyrinths of Eho, Book One
Mahmoud Darwish, Almond Blossoms and Beyond
Markus Heitz, Dwarves
Jan Guillou, Road to Jerusalem
Miyuki Miyabe, Brave Story
Fernando del Paso, News from the Empire
Philippe Claudel, Brodeck
Ricardas Gavelis, Vilnius Poker
Hape Kerkeling, I’m Off Then: Losing and Finding Myself on the Camino de Santiago

2010

Stieg Larsson, Girl Who Kicked the Hornet’s Nest
Jo Nesbo, Devil’s Star
Cornelia Funke, Inkdeath
Isabel Allende, Island Beneath the Sea
Giacomo Leopardi, Canti
Oliver Potzsch, Hangman’s Daughter
Olga Tokarczuk, Primeval and Other Times
Camilla Lackberg, Ice Princess
Deon Meyer, Thirteen Hours
Markus Heitz, War of the Dwarves
Sofi Oksanen, Purge
David Grossman, To the End of the Land
Henrik Pontoppidan, Lucky Per
Wislawa Szymborska, Here
Arnaldur Indridason, Hypothermia
Ahmed Mourad, Vertigo
Joses Rodrigues dos Santos, Einstein Enigma
Hiroshi Yamamoto, Stories of Ibis
Paolo Giaordano, Solitude of Prime Numbers
Amelie Nothomb, Hygiene and the Assassin

2011

Jo Nesbo, Snowman
Haruki Murakami, 1Q84
Jo Nesbo, Leopard
Jussi Adler-Olsen, Keeper of Lost Causes
Keigo Higashino, Devotion of Suspect X
Carsten Jensen, We, the Drowned
Margaret Mazzantini, Twice Born
Max Frei, Stranger’s Woes
Mahmoud Darwish, In the Presence of Absence
Henning Mankell, Troubled Man
Jose Saramago, Cain
Daniel Glattauer, Love Virtually
Jo Nesbo, Headhunters
Kyung-sook Shin, Please Look After Mom
Jan Guilllou, Birth of the Kingdom
Ferdinand von Schirach, Crime: Stories
Lars Kepler, Hypnotist
Edouard Leve, Suicide
Wieslaw Mysliwski, Stone Upon Stone
Fabio Geda, In the Sea There Are Crocodiles

2012

Kerstin Gier, Sapphire Blue, Book 2
Ibrahim Nasrallah, Time of White Horses
Elena Ferrante, My Brilliant Friend
Jo Nesbo, Phantom
Jan-Philipp Sendker, Art of Hearing Heartbeats
Carlos Ruiz Zafon, Prisoner of Heaven
Jonas Jonasson, 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle: Book One
Hector Abad, Oblivion: A Memoir
Laurent Binet, HHhH
Ursula Poznanski, Erebos
Donato Carrisi, Whisperer
Max Frei, Stranger’s Magic
Sarah Lark, In the Land of the Long White Cloud
Antonia Michaelis, Storyteller
Jussi Adler-Olsen, Absent One
Michel Houellebecq, Map and the Territory
Camilla Lackberg, Stonecutter
Oliver Potzsch, Dark Monk
Anne Voorhoeve, My Family for the War

2013

Elena Ferrante, Story of a New Name
Andrzej Sapkowski, Time of Contempt
Melissa Muller, Anne Frank: The Biography
Jo Nesbo, Police: A Harry Hole Novel
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle: Book Two
Christiane F., Zoo Station: The Story of Christiane F.
Andrea Hirata, Rainbow Troops
Jo Nesbo, Redeemer
Jussi Adler-Olsen, Conspiracy of Faith
Aleksandra Mizielinska, Maps
Lars Kepler, Fire Witness
Parinoush Saniee, Book of Fate
Jussi Adler-Olsen, Purity of Vengeance
Florencia Bonelli, Obsession
Max Frei, Stranger’s Shadow
Cornelia Funke, Fearless: Book 2
Maurice Druon, Iron King
Pierre Lemaitre, Alex
Sarah Lark, Song of the Spirits
Oliver Potzsch, Beggar King

2014

Fredrik Backman, Man Called Ove
Elena Ferrante, Those Who Leave and Those Who Stay
Radwa Ashour, Woman from Tantoura
Cixin Liu, Three-Body Problem
Joel Dicker, Truth about the Harry Quebert Affair
Leonardo Padura, Man Who Loved Dogs
Jo Nesbo, Son
Carlos Ruiz Zafon, Marina
Jang Jin-Sung, Dear Leader: Poet, Spy, Escapee–A Look Inside North Korea
Haruki Murakami, Colorless Tsukuru Tazaki and His Years of Pilgrimage
Florencia Bonelli, Possession
David Van Reybrouck, Congo: The Epic History of a People
Florencia Bonelli, Passion
Thomas Piketty, Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle: Book Three
Delphine De Vigan, Nothing Holds Back the Night
Jan-Philipp Sendker, Well-Tempered Heart
Mariusz Szczygiel, Gottland: Mostly True Stories from Half of Czechoslovakia
Camilla Lackberg, Hidden Child
Sarah Lark, Call of the Kiwi

2015

Elena Ferrante, Story of the Lost Child
Cixin Liu, Dark Forest
Saud Alsanousi, Bamboo Stalk
Jaume Cabre, Confessions
Ibrahim Nasrallah, Lanterns of the King of Galilee
David Lagercrantz, Girl in the Spider’s Web
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle: Book Four
Tonke Dragt, Letter for the King
Irma Joubert, Girl from the Train
Eugene Vodolazkin, Laurus
Orhan Pamuk, Strangeness in My Mind
Isabel Allende, Japanese Lover
Pierre Lemaitre, Great Swindle
Oliver Potzsch, Werewolf of Bamberg
Etgar Keret, Seven Good Years
Andrus Kivirahk, Man Who Spoke Snakish
Leila Chudori, Home
Bernhard Hennen, Elven
Petra Durst-Benning, American Lady
Clarice Lispector, Complete Stories

2016

Cixin Liu, Death's End
Fredrik Backman, And Every Morning the Way Home Gets Longer and Longer
Fredrik Backman, Britt-Marie Was Here
Karl Ove Knausgaard, My Struggle: Book Five
Keigo Higashino, Under the Midnight Sun
Giuseppe Catozzella, Don't Tell Me You're Afraid
Benyamin, Goat Days
Samuel Bjork, I'm Traveling Alone
Arkady Strugatsky, Doomed City
David Foenkinos, Charlotte: A Novel
Parinoush Saniee, I Hid My Voice
Petra Durst-Benning, Champagne Queen
Sarah Lark, Toward the Sea of Freedom
Robert Seethaler, Whole Life
Yusuf Atilgan, Motherland Hotel
Armando Lucas Correa, German Girl
Paul Pen, Light of Fireflies
Petra Durst-Benning, While the World Is Still Asleep
Pierre Lemaitre, Blood Wedding
Han Kang, Vegetarian

2017

Fredrik Backman, Beartown
Sabahattin Ali, Madonna in a Fur Coat
Jo Nesbo, Thirst
Mustafa Khalifa, Shell: Memoirs of a Hidden Observer
Bibhutibhushan Bandyopadhyay, Aranyak: Of the Forest
Mina Baites, Silver Music Box
Han Kang, Human Acts
Juan Villoro, Wild Book
Oliver Potzsch, Play of Death
Mariam Petrosyan, Gray House
Deon Meyer, Fever
Julia Drosten, Lioness of Morocco
Dee Lestari, Paper Boats
Boris Akunin, State Counsellor
Petra Durst-Benning, Queen of Beauty
Anais Barbeau-Lavalette, Suzanne
Hasan Ali Toptas, Shadowless
David Lagercrantz, Girl Who Takes an Eye for an Eye
Lena Manta, House by the River
Hendrik Groen, Secret Diary of Hendrik Groen, 83 1/4 Years Old

2018

Fredrik Backman, Us Against You
Carlos Ruiz Zafon, Labyrinth of the Spirits
Masaji Ishikawa, River in Darkness
Hiro Arikawa, Travelling Cat Chronicles
Lars Kepler, Sandman
Christelle Dabos, Winter’s Promise
Gael Faye, Small Country
Oliver Potzsch, Council of Twelve
Paolo Cognetti, Eight Mountains
Dolores Redondo, All This I Will Give to You
Carlo Rovelli, Order of Time
Karl Ove Knausgaard, Spring
Maria Parr, Astrid the Unstoppable
Haruki Murakami, Killing Commendatore
Antanas Skema, White Shroud
Andrzej Sapkowski, Season of Storms
Marina Dyachenko, Vita Nostra
Marc Levy, Last of the Stanfields
Sayaka Murata, Convenience Store Woman
Negar Djavadi, Disoriental

2019

Note: It’s only June, so there’s a lot of 2019 left.

Christelle Dabos, Missing of Clairdelune
Guzel Yakhina, Zuleikha
Benedict Wells, End of Loneliness
Sofia Segovia, Murmur of Bees
Magda Szabo, Abigail
Boris Akunin, Coronation
Marc Levy, Strange Journey of Alice Pendelbury
Donatella Di Pietrantonio, Girl Returned
Sofia Lundberg, Red Address Book
Alessandro D’Avenia, What Hell Is Not
Stephane Larue, Dishwasher
Han Kang, White Book
Susana Lopez Rubio, Price of Paradise
Linn Ullmann, Unquiet
Selahattin Demirtas, Dawn
Edouard Louis, Who Killed My Father
Samanta Schweblin, Mouthful of Birds
Hedi Fried, Questions I Am Asked About the Holocaust
Gabriel Garcia Marquez, I’m Not Here to Give a Speech
Jonas Jonasson, Accidental Further Adventures of the 100-Year-Old Man

Board game rank change report for 2019Q1 and 2018Q4

Here are the titles advancing substantially in the top 500 this quarter at BGG–the usual caveats apply.

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
081 (+419) Wingspan
112 (+188) Architects of the West Kingdom
117 (+185) Teotihuacan: City of Gods
152 (+117) Chronicles of Crime
218 (+116) Coimbra
257 (+232) Detective: A Modern Crime Board Game
292 (+208) Nemesis
334 (+166) The Quacks of Quedlinburg
382 (+118) Western Legends
389 (+111) Gùgōng

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
054 (+446) Wingspan
248 (+252) Pax Renaissance
280 (+200) Newton
293 (+207) Dominion (Second Edition)

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
126 (+374) Nexus Ops

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
015 (+485) Everdell
095 (+405) Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab
101 (+399) Web of Power
151 (+349) Between Two Castles of Mad King Ludwig
203 (+297) Fantasy Realms
278 (+222) Love Letter: The Hobbit – The Battle of the Five Armies
288 (+212) Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition
296 (+204) Treasure Island
297 (+203) Dice Hospital

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
031 (+469) Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition)
156 (+344) Halo ActionClix

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
030 (+470) BattleLore (Second Edition)
070 (+430) Arcadia Quest: Inferno
093 (+407) Too Many Bones: Undertow
140 (+360) Adrenaline
150 (+350) Unlock! Squeek & Sausage
266 (+234) Claustrophobia 1643
278 (+222) Frostgrave
282 (+218) Kepler-3042
300 (+200) Legacy: Gears of Time

Also, here’s a report on Q4–my earlier report covered an irregular span of time:

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
034 (+153) Brass: Birmingham
222 (+278) Endeavor: Age of Sail
235 (+265) KeyForge: Call of the Archons
236 (+232) Everdell
249 (+133) Decrypto
260 (+240) Welcome To...
269 (+231) Chronicles of Crime
300 (+200) Architects of the West Kingdom
302 (+198) Teotihuacan: City of Gods
307 (+160) Ganz schön clever
334 (+166) Coimbra

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
113 (+387) Endeavor: Age of Sail
139 (+361) Teotihuacan: City of Gods
158 (+342) Architects of the West Kingdom
173 (+327) Coimbra

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
102 (+398) Quartermaster General
217 (+283) Diplomacy

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
111 (+389) Gizmos
131 (+369) Reef
141 (+359) Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra
170 (+330) Kitchen Rush
178 (+322) Cryptid
200 (+211) My Little Scythe
253 (+247) Ticket to Ride: New York
296 (+204) Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition
297 (+203) Unlock! The House on the Hill

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
006 (+494) KeyForge: Call of the Archons
211 (+289) Hatalom Kártyái Kártyajáték

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
029 (+471) Dinosaur Island
040 (+460) Chronicles of Crime
141 (+357) Nemesis
158 (+342) Kitchen Rush
166 (+334) Arkham Horror (Third Edition)
190 (+310) AuZtralia
242 (+258) Unlock! The House on the Hill
247 (+253) Betrayal Legacy
259 (+241) Deep Madness
265 (+235) Betrayal at Baldur's Gate
271 (+229) Sub Terra

Board game rank change report for Q3 + most of 2018

It’s time once again for a round-up of games that have become especially popular at BGG over the past year. But first, here’s a belated report on what games showed the most positive movement in rank between 6/30/2018 and 9/30/2018.

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
180 (+320) Root
187 (+313) Brass: Birmingham
349 (+140) Century: Golem Edition
382 (+118) Decrypto

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
068 (+432) Brass: Birmingham
091 (+409) Root
249 (+251) Everdell

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
034 (+466) Root
040 (+460) Wir sind das Volk!
253 (+247) Cataclysm: A Second World War
292 (+208) Skies Above the Reich
300 (+200) Gaslands

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
024 (+476) Evolution: Climate
099 (+401) Welcome To...
123 (+377) Century: Eastern Wonders
126 (+374) Ex Libris
199 (+301) Jump Drive
250 (+250) Odin's Ravens (Second Edition)
297 (+203) Holmes: Sherlock & Mycroft

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
045 (+455) Aristeia!

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
127 (+373) Zombicide: Green Horde
132 (+368) Witness
138 (+362) Wasteland Express Delivery Service
164 (+336) The Big Book of Madness
187 (+313) Dragonfire
195 (+305) Detective: A Modern Crime Board Game
292 (+208) Western Legends
297 (+203) The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch

And here’s a report on what happened across most of 2018 (1/22 to 12/8):

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
015 (+103) Twilight Imperium (Fourth Edition)
021 (+165) Spirit Island
041 (+459) Brass: Birmingham
051 (+449) Rising Sun
093 (+101) Agricola (Revised Edition)
103 (+100) Raiders of the North Sea
106 (+394) Root
138 (+285) Clank! In! Space!
162 (+140) This War of Mine: The Board Game
178 (+159) Too Many Bones
189 (+311) Dinosaur Island
219 (+281) Rajas of the Ganges
238 (+164) Roll Player
244 (+138) Flamme Rouge
249 (+105) Hanamikoji
256 (+244) Everdell
270 (+230) Pulsar 2849
283 (+217) Decrypto
285 (+215) Welcome To...
301 (+199) KeyForge: Call of the Archons
303 (+197) The Quest for El Dorado
304 (+196) Century: Golem Edition
305 (+131) Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures
307 (+193) Mythic Battles: Pantheon
320 (+125) Bärenpark
322 (+126) Photosynthesis
339 (+161) Altiplano
342 (+158) Heaven & Ale
344 (+138) The Godfather: Corleone's Empire
346 (+154) Ganz schön clever
354 (+146) Lords of Hellas
366 (+134) Endeavor: Age of Sail
380 (+120) Aeon's End: War Eternal
386 (+114) Santa Maria

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
014 (+486) Brass: Birmingham
041 (+459) Rising Sun
063 (+437) Root
119 (+381) Dinosaur Island
128 (+204) Rajas of the Ganges
143 (+357) Evolution: Climate
146 (+354) Pulsar 2849
149 (+351) Everdell
171 (+329) Endeavor: Age of Sail
184 (+316) Aeon's End: War Eternal
191 (+309) Heaven & Ale
195 (+305) Altiplano
196 (+304) Century: Golem Edition
198 (+302) Lords of Hellas
203 (+297) Coimbra
205 (+295) Teotihuacan: City of Gods
207 (+293) Santa Maria
253 (+238) London (second edition)
263 (+237) The Fox in the Forest
272 (+228) Exit: The Game – The Pharaoh's Tomb
296 (+204) Thunderstone Quest

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
002 (+498) War of the Ring (Second Edition)
018 (+482) War of the Ring (First Edition)
032 (+468) Root
039 (+461) Hannibal & Hamilcar
106 (+394) Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain
111 (+389) Here I Stand (500th Anniversary Reprint Edition)
189 (+311) Cataclysm: A Second World War
194 (+306) Skies Above the Reich
218 (+282) Diplomacy
229 (+271) Great War Commander
245 (+255) Gaslands

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
014 (+486) Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin
025 (+475) Welcome To...
037 (+463) Ganz schön clever
096 (+404) Century: Eastern Wonders
109 (+391) Dragon Castle
118 (+382) Ex Libris
125 (+375) The Mind
131 (+369) Stuffed Fables
148 (+352) Majesty: For the Realm
150 (+350) Rhino Hero: Super Battle
153 (+347) Reef
172 (+328) Kitchen Rush
173 (+327) Space Base
179 (+321) Hardback
182 (+318) The Grimm Forest
192 (+308) Istanbul: The Dice Game
198 (+302) The Quacks of Quedlinburg
241 (+259) My Little Scythe
250 (+250) Cat Lady
251 (+249) Odin's Ravens (Second Edition)
273 (+227) Ticket to Ride: New York
276 (+224) Noch mal!
280 (+220) Palm Island
281 (+219) Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra
298 (+202) The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
006 (+494) KeyForge: Call of the Archons
030 (+470) Star Wars: Legion
038 (+462) Aristeia!
211 (+289) Hatalom Kártyái Kártyajáték

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
036 (+464) Dinosaur Island
071 (+429) Chronicles of Crime
072 (+428) The Godfather: Corleone's Empire
079 (+421) Detective: A Modern Crime Board Game
113 (+387) Western Legends
116 (+384) Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab
118 (+382) Zombicide: Green Horde
134 (+366) Witness
136 (+364) Stuffed Fables
138 (+362) Wasteland Express Delivery Service
161 (+339) Kitchen Rush
168 (+332) The Big Book of Madness
170 (+330) High Frontier (Third Edition)
178 (+322) Legacy of Dragonholt
186 (+314) Dragonfire
197 (+303) The City of Kings
205 (+295) Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set
213 (+287) Arkham Horror (Third Edition)
214 (+286) AuZtralia
236 (+264) John Company
240 (+260) Tiny Epic Zombies
243 (+257) Unlock! The House on the Hill
265 (+235) Deep Madness
274 (+226) The Dresden Files Cooperative Card Game
275 (+225) Sub Terra
283 (+217) Gaslands
288 (+212) The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch
291 (+209) Bios: Megafauna (Second Edition)
299 (+201) Hunt for the Ring

Fast-growing Fandoms: An Initial Look

Two weeks ago, I took a snapshot of entry counts for each tag on the fandoms page at Archive of Our Own, hoping to eventually get a sense of which fandoms were growing fastest. Comparing that data with the entry counts on the site today, I think it might be possible to understand which fandoms are growing most quickly.

Unfortunately, a simple count of how many times each fandom’s tag was used is going to be imperfect—maybe much more misleading than my BoardGameGeek reports. Evidently, AO3 tag counts can fluctuate quite a bit: their names can change; tags can reportedly be reclassified such that their new parent tags suddenly get credit for existing entries; and the archive accepts mass uploads of fanfic from old repositories / personal collections such that work written long ago can suddenly show up as if it were new.

Still, it’s something. I’ll start with the top 25 fandoms by a raw count of new entries appearing in the past two weeks:

∆       %∆      Total   Fandom
----    -----   ------  ------
3218	0.023	143559	K-pop
3105	0.013	241238	Marvel
2792	0.013	220048	Marvel Cinematic Universe
1619	0.038	44004	Voltron: Legendary Defender
1572	0.026	62339	방탄소년단 | Bangtan Boys | BTS
1278	0.063	21405	僕のヒーローアカデミア | Boku no Hero Academia | My Hero Academia
1263	0.008	167506	Real Person Fiction
1249	1.892	1909	Detroit: Become Human (Video Game)
1215	0.01	118844	The Avengers - Ambiguous Fandom
1214	0.011	115916	The Avengers (Marvel) - All Media Types
1185	1185.0	1186	Metalocalypse (Cartoon)
1116	0.007	169996	Harry Potter - J. K. Rowling
1034	0.009	116772	DCU
1011	0.01	98215	The Avengers (Marvel Movies)
936	0.005	184710	Supernatural
715	0.01	72436	Star Wars - All Media Types
706	0.017	42992	Original Work
607	0.009	65714	Captain America - All Media Types
568	0.098	6376	Firefly
557	0.01	58797	Captain America (Movies)
498	0.005	93744	Teen Wolf (TV)
462	0.034	13870	Spider-Man - All Media Types
451	0.004	113953	Sherlock Holmes & Related Fandoms
423	0.072	6285	NCT (Band)
397	0.013	30213	Final Fantasy

Honestly, the most surprising items are things like Firefly, the tag count for which has likely been skewed by one of the factors I mentioned above. Only Detroit: Become Human pops out as the kind of fast-growing category I’m sure I’m looking for (though I have doubts about the game itself). So a raw count of new entries is probably not very helpful for discovering newly popular / fast-growing fandoms.

So here’s a list of every fandom that had more than 25 new entries in the past two weeks, that grew by more than 4.0%, and that had more existing entries two weeks ago than it has gained in the past two weeks (a criterion that will eliminate things that are really too new to judge; for example, assuming it has real growth potential, I’ll have to catch Detroit: Become Human next time, because it’s more important to weed out name changes and weed out percent changes that only seem large because the population is too small):

Total   ∆       %∆      Fandom
-----   ----    -----   ------
21405	1278	0.063	僕のヒーローアカデミア | Boku no Hero Academia | My Hero Academia
6820	298	0.046	Dungeons & Dragons - All Media Types
6376	568	0.098	Firefly
6285	423	0.072	NCT (Band)
4936	365	0.08	Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017)
4637	256	0.058	Critical Role (Web Series)
3999	181	0.047	New Dangan Ronpa V3: Everyone's New Semester of Killing
3245	255	0.085	Sanders Sides (Web Series)
3211	174	0.057	全职高手 - 蝴蝶蓝 | Quánzhí Gāoshǒu - Húdié Lán
2068	104	0.053	Black Panther (2018)
2061	105	0.054	Figure Skating RPF
1508	91	0.064	Doctor Strange (2016)
1449	65	0.047	Buzzfeed Unsolved (Web Series)
1329	94	0.076	Bendy and the Ink Machine
1307	51	0.041	RuPaul's Drag Race RPF
1116	90	0.088	Far Cry (Video Games)
1104	83	0.081	Timeless (TV 2016)
1093	75	0.074	Stray Kids (Band)
1006	148	0.172	偶像练习生 | Idol Producer (TV)
955	66	0.074	Deadpool (Movieverse)
889	49	0.058	Fire Emblem Heroes
833	45	0.057	MacGyver (TV 2016)
772	46	0.063	Fate/Grand Order
753	30	0.041	Falsettos - Lapine/Finn
724	49	0.073	Simon vs. the Homo Sapiens Agenda - Becky Albertalli
676	52	0.083	The Arcana (Visual Novel)
671	48	0.077	Disney Duck Universe
663	43	0.069	13 Reasons Why (TV)
633	38	0.064	Doki Doki Literature Club! (Visual Novel)
633	38	0.064	Call Me By Your Name - All Media Types
583	36	0.066	The Worst Witch - All Media Types
570	85	0.175	Far Cry 5
539	45	0.091	Love Simon (2018)
531	52	0.109	Trollhunters (Cartoon)
517	28	0.057	龍が如く | Ryuu ga Gotoku | Yakuza (Video Games)
511	31	0.065	Call Me By Your Name (2017)
497	114	0.298	NINE PERCENT (Band)
481	36	0.081	The Worst Witch (TV 2017)
441	99	0.289	Ocean's (Movies)
409	30	0.079	Ginga Eiyuu Densetsu | Legend of the Galactic Heroes
399	62	0.184	Splatoon
374	27	0.078	Humans (TV)
369	38	0.115	DuckTales (Cartoon 2017)
361	43	0.135	BanG Dream! Girl's Band Party! (Video Game)
304	34	0.126	Granblue Fantasy (Video Game)
295	56	0.234	凹凸世界 | AOTU Shijie | AOTU World
293	28	0.106	Eurovision Song Contest RPF
265	27	0.113	Boruto: Naruto Next Generations
245	41	0.201	The Incredibles (2004)
193	45	0.304	Flight Rising
179	34	0.234	Garrison's Gorillas
121	30	0.33	HiGH&LOW: the Story of S.W.O.R.D. (TV)

I’m not positive this is the best way to look at the data, but there sure are plenty of things here I’ve never heard of and would like to know more about.

Board game rank change report for 2018Q2

Here’s an update on what games have advanced in the rankings recently at BoardGameGeek.

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
339 (+104) Rajas of the Ganges

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
272 (+206) Century: Golem Edition

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
018 (+482) War of the Ring (First Edition)
098 (+332) Hannibal & Hamilcar
265 (+235) Here I Stand (500th Anniversary Reprint Edition)

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
015 (+485) Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin
160 (+340) The Mind
176 (+324) Ganz schön clever
182 (+223) Dragon Castle
219 (+281) The Grimm Forest
297 (+203) Cat Lady

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
034 (+466) Star Wars: Legion

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
074 (+426) The Godfather: Corleone's Empire
119 (+381) Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab
194 (+306) The City of Kings
270 (+230) The Dresden Files Cooperative Card Game

Analysis of SF/F Movie Data

Looking back on a number of metrics associated with the 253 feature-length science fiction, fantasy, or supernatural horror films I’ve seen from the years 2011-2015, I don’t find too much of interest, but an uninteresting result is still something. It’s not bad to have empirical evidence for what you might have guessed, and if you look at something closely enough for long enough, you come out the other side of uninteresting and enter a tiny world of nerdy fun.

Correlations among metrics

First, a matrix of correlation coefficients based on data from multiple sources:

                     A    B    C    D    E    F    G    H    I    J    K
                     ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
A: My rating         1    0.98 0.15 0.38 0.23 0.34 0.15 0.38 0.27 0.2  0.33 
B: My retro rating   0.98 1    0.15 0.39 0.23 0.37 0.14 0.39 0.29 0.23 0.35
C: IMDb votes        0.15 0.15 1    0.46 0.94 0.22 0.81 0.43 0.1  0.17 0.24 
D: IMDb rating       0.38 0.39 0.46 1    0.48 0.77 0.32 0.86 0.55 0.55 0.75 
E: Letterboxd votes  0.23 0.23 0.94 0.48 1    0.34 0.71 0.47 0.22 0.33 0.35 
F: Letterboxd rating 0.34 0.37 0.22 0.77 0.34 1    0.06 0.72 0.77 0.8  0.86 
G: RT votes          0.15 0.14 0.81 0.32 0.71 0.06 1    0.33 0.05 0.05 0.15 
H: RT user rating    0.38 0.39 0.43 0.86 0.47 0.72 0.33 1    0.65 0.55 0.79 
I: RT crit. rating   0.27 0.29 0.1  0.55 0.22 0.77 0.05 0.65 1    0.87 0.96 
J: Metacritic rating 0.2  0.23 0.17 0.55 0.33 0.8  0.05 0.55 0.87 1    0.87 
K: IMDb * RT crit    0.33 0.35 0.24 0.75 0.35 0.86 0.15 0.79 0.96 0.87 1 

As a basic explanation of what’s going on here, every available set of metrics has been compared with every other. For the sake of space, the column labels have been simplified to letters that correspond to the letters beside the row labels. “My rating” is the collection of scores I gave each film at the time I watched it. Evidently I held my marks: I didn’t give out a single “10.” I also never changed a rating, so the “My rating” metric is not colored by rosy retrospection. But in view of the fact that my opinions did evolve a little over time, I built a “retro rating” metric by awarding a one-point bonus to every film noted in my previous “Movie Favorites: SF/F/H 2011-2015” post. Most other data sources should be transparently intelligible, except for row/column K, which is based on multiplying the IMDb user rating and RT critic ratings together—a metric I’ve used in some earlier data mining posts about movies.

Unsurprisingly, my judgments line up best with those of other users at IMDb, RT, and (to a slightly lesser extent) Letterboxd. It’s only a moderate correlation, but aggregate ratings from critics have even weaker correlations with my scores.

Optimal movie selection

Looking only at the 40 feature-length films I eventually designated as favorites, here are the minimum scores they achieved:

IMDb        6.0+
Letterboxd  2.7+
RT user     43%+
RT critic   32%+
Metacritic  41+

If I’d known this in advance, I could have skipped 29 out of 253 films without missing out on any favorites. That is to say, if I had insisted sort of compulsively that everything I watch have at least the scores above, I could have achieved a 40/224 favorite-to-watched ratio. But if I’d been interested in a compromise—discovering fewer favorites but also watching far fewer films I didn’t enjoy—what criteria would have yielded better ratios? To answer that question, I wrote a script to cycle through random threshold values for all five metrics and find a set of scores yielding a good ratio for each number of favorites:

                  IMDb   Let.    RT u.  RT c.  Meta
40/224 (17.9%)    6      2.7     43     32     41
39/207 (18.8%)    6      2.7     43     58     43
38/166 (22.9%)    6.3    3.1     55     42     41
37/150 (24.7%)    6.4    3.1     61     39     44
36/132 (27.3%)    6.3    3.3     48     68     45
35/127 (27.6%)    6.3    3.3     60     68     41
34/118 (28.8%)    6      3.35    53     68     46
33/114 (28.9%)    6.4    3.35    61     66     45
32/101 (31.7%)    6.1    3.4     52     67     48
31/95  (32.6%)    6.2    3.4     61     68     42
30/88  (34.1%)    6.3    3.45    46     68     41
29/85  (34.1%)    6      3.45    61     47     42
28/78  (35.9%)    6.4    3.4     73     67     43
27/70  (38.6%)    6.1    3.45    73     68     41
26/67  (38.8%)    6.1    3.4     60     88     60
25/59  (42.4%)    6.5    3.45    60     89     46
24/56  (42.9%)    6      3.35    73     89     62
23/50  (46.0%)    6.1    3.45    73     89     44
22/48  (45.8%)    6.4    3.45    73     89     68
21/41  (51.2%)    6.8    3.45    46     92     41
20/35  (57.1%)    6.8    3.65    56     89     60

My script in fact yielded much more data, showing each ratio it preferred over the next, and one very slow version of the script deterministically ran through every possible value for every metric. But the “random walk” version converged on similar results much more quickly.

My conclusions are a little impressionistic. Aiming at a ~33-34% favorite-to-total ratio “feels” about right. Ratios above 38% require very high RT critic ratings, perhaps limiting a viewer to a steady diet of blockbusters and children’s movies. Surprisingly, Metacritic and IMDb scores don’t seem very crucial in these results: they often return to their start values as the ratios improve, suggesting some Letterboxd or RT user rating might have served about as well. So I suspect I could find favorites more easily in the future by selecting only SF/F films that have a Letterboxd rating of 3.4+, an RT user approval rating of 61% or above, and an RT critic rating of 68% or above. I mean, I doubt I’ll do much with the information—movies that don’t turn out to be favorites can still be fun, etc.—but it was an engaging puzzle to work through.

Board game rank change report for 2018Q1

Here’s an update on what games have moved up a lot recently at BoardGameGeek. The dates covered by the data are actually 11/17/2017-03/31/2018—a bit more than 2018Q1, but close enough for this purpose.

Fast, positive movers among 'Board games':
018 (+482) Gaia Project
037 (+344) Pandemic Legacy: Season 2
044 (+456) Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition
061 (+439) Azul
063 (+348) Spirit Island
065 (+143) Clans of Caledonia
078 (+422) Rising Sun
098 (+402) Charterstone
128 (+242) Codenames Duet
141 (+131) Lisboa
174 (+115) Sagrada
195 (+305) This War of Mine: The Board Game
216 (+119) Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin
252 (+248) Clank! In! Space!
343 (+117) Flamme Rouge
344 (+156) Dinosaur Island
355 (+145) Photosynthesis
359 (+106) Dice Forge
367 (+122) Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures
400 (+100) Mythic Battles: Pantheon

Fast, positive movers among 'Strategy games':
006 (+494) Star Wars: Rebellion
008 (+245) Gaia Project
015 (+485) Pandemic Legacy: Season 2
025 (+475) Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition
054 (+446) Rising Sun
059 (+441) Charterstone
137 (+363) Clank! In! Space!
186 (+314) Dinosaur Island
211 (+289) Mythic Battles: Pantheon
225 (+275) Rajas of the Ganges
299 (+201) Pulsar 2849

Fast, positive movers among 'War games':
002 (+498) War of the Ring (Second Edition)
209 (+210) Holland '44: Operation Market-Garden
224 (+276) Pendragon: The Fall of Roman Britain

Fast, positive movers among 'Family games':
084 (+416) Queendomino
115 (+385) Bunny Kingdom
139 (+361) The Fox in the Forest
171 (+329) Majesty: For the Realm
208 (+292) Rhino Hero: Super Battle
228 (+272) Meeple Circus
256 (+244) Viral
262 (+238) Stuffed Fables

Fast, positive movers among 'Collectible games':
032 (+468) Dungeon Command: Curse of Undeath
034 (+466) Dungeon Command: Blood of Gruumsh
038 (+462) Dungeon Command: Tyranny of Goblins
039 (+461) Dungeon Command: Heart of Cormyr
041 (+459) Pixel Tactics 2
042 (+458) Dungeon Command: Sting of Lolth
134 (+366) Romance of the Nine Empires

Fast, positive movers among 'Thematic games':
005 (+495) Pandemic Legacy: Season 2
029 (+471) Captain Sonar
038 (+462) Exit: The Game – The Abandoned Cabin
087 (+413) Flamme Rouge
090 (+410) Harry Potter: Hogwarts Battle
167 (+333) High Frontier (3rd edition)
174 (+326) Fire & Axe: A Viking Saga
181 (+319) Fog of Love
188 (+312) Pathfinder Adventure Card Game: Wrath of the Righteous – Base Set
195 (+305) Fallout
199 (+301) Stuffed Fables
204 (+296) DOOM: The Board Game
227 (+273) Whitehall Mystery
231 (+269) Legacy of Dragonholt